Market Recovery: The general recession in HDD demand that began in 2022 and continued through most of 2023 appears to have ended in 2024.
Legacy HDD Decline: The long-term decline in demand for legacy HDD applications, such as personal computers and consumer electronics, continued in 2024 due to replacement by SSDs and cloud storage. Unit shipments of these legacy HDDs were down over 20% year over year.
Nearline HDD Growth: Unit volume shipments of high-capacity nearline HDDs are projected to have increased about 42% in 2024 from 2023.
Overall HDD Shipments: Overall HDD unit shipments in 2024 are projected to be about 2% higher than in 2023, at approximately 124 million units. This marks the first year-over-year shipment growth since 2010.
Capacity and Revenue: HDD capacity shipments are estimated to increase about 39% from 2023 to 2024, reaching 1.2 zettabytes. Gross HDD revenues may increase by about 45%, totaling $19.5 billion in 2024 compared to 2023.
Trend Forecast on HDD Sales:
The HDD market is experiencing a resurgence, primarily driven by the increasing demand for high-capacity storage solutions in data centers and AI applications. Both Seagate Technology and Western Digital have reported significant profit growth attributed to this demand:
Seagate Technology: Seagate's mass-capacity drives, particularly suited for AI training data and AI-generated content, have surged to account for 83% of its hard drive sales in the latest quarter. Cloud-computing demand for nearline storage doubled year-over-year as of June 2024, and fiscal 2025 is expected to see continued expansion.
Western Digital: Western Digital reported a 153% year-over-year increase in cloud revenue, reaching $2.2 billion. This surge is attributed to the proliferation of the AI data cycle, highlighting the growing need for storage solutions in AI and data-intensive applications.
These trends suggest a positive outlook for HDD sales, with expectations of continued growth in the near future.
The HDD market is expected to see mixed growth, with increasing demand for high-capacity enterprise storage but declining consumer HDD sales. Below is a 5-year forecast based on current industry trends:
Key Factors Influencing HDD Sales
- Enterprise Demand for Nearline Storage - Cloud storage providers and data centers will drive HDD shipments, with AI and big data applications increasing storage needs.
- Declining Consumer HDD Market - Personal computers and consumer electronics are shifting to SSDs, reducing the demand for traditional HDDs.
- Technology Advancements - Innovations like HAMR (Heat-Assisted Magnetic Recording) and MAMR (Microwave-Assisted Magnetic Recording) will increase HDD capacity while reducing cost per TB.
- Price Advantage Over SSDs - HDDs remain more cost-effective for bulk storage, ensuring steady demand in enterprise applications.
- Emerging AI Storage Needs - AI workloads generate vast amounts of unstructured data, fueling HDD usage in large-scale storage solutions.
HDD Sales Forecast (2025-2030)
| Year | Estimated HDD Shipments (Million Units) | Estimated Storage Capacity Shipped (Zettabytes) | Growth Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 124M | 1.2 ZB | Recovery phase |
| 2025 | 130M - 135M | 1.5 ZB | Growth in nearline HDDs |
| 2026 | 140M - 145M | 1.9 ZB | Data center demand increases |
| 2027 | 145M - 150M | 2.3 ZB | AI-driven storage boom |
| 2028 | 150M - 155M | 2.8 ZB | Peak enterprise HDD demand |
| 2029 | 140M - 145M | 3.2 ZB | Consumer HDDs continue to decline |
| 2030 | 130M - 135M | 3.5 ZB | HDD dominance in cloud storage |
Conclusion
- Enterprise HDD sales will continue to grow through 2028, driven by nearline storage for cloud and AI applications.
- HDD storage capacity (Zettabytes) will increase significantly, even as unit sales stabilize, due to larger-capacity drives (30TB+ HDDs by 2028).
- By 2030, consumer HDDs will decline further, while enterprise HDDs maintain a steady market presence.
Storage Capacity: Continues increasing as high-capacity enterprise HDDs dominate the market.
